Project Smart ~ Exploring trends and developments in project management today

Calendar iconNot recorded
Adobe PDF icon

Delphi Technique a Step-by-Step Guide

~ By Duncan Haughey

Four people standing around a questionmark

As a project manager, it is important to think about what future events may impact your projects. These events may be positive or negative, so understanding them allows you to prepare, and put plans in place to deal with them. But how can you forecast the future with any degree of certainty? The Delphi Technique can help.

The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.

The group members discuss and review the summary report, and give updated forecasts to the facilitator, who again reviews the material and issues a second report. This process continues until all participants reach a consensus.

The experts at each round have a full record of what forecasts other experts have made, but they do not know who made which forecast. Anonymity allows the experts to express their opinions freely, encourages openness and avoids admitting errors by revising earlier forecasts.

This article looks at how to run a Delphi session. On completion of this guide, you will be able to run a session enabling you to predict future events and their likely impact on your projects.

The technique is an iterative process, and first aims to get a broad range of opinions from the group of experts. The results of the first round of questions, when summarised, provide the basis for the second round of questions. Results from the second round of questions feed into the third and final round.

The aim is to clarify and expand on issues, identify areas of agreement or disagreement and begin to find consensus.

Step 1: Choose a Facilitator

The first step is to choose your facilitator. You may wish to take on this role yourself, or find a neutral person within your organisation. It is useful to have someone that is familiar with research and data collection.

Step 2: Identify Your Experts

The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. This panel may be your project team, including the customer, or other experts from within your organisation or industry. An expert is, any individual with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic. ¹

Step 3: Define the Problem

What is the problem or issue you are seeking to understand? The experts need to know what problem they are commenting on, so ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition.

Step 4: Round One Questions

Ask general questions to gain a broad understanding of the experts view on future events. The questions may go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Collate and summarise the responses, removing any irrelevant material and looking for common viewpoints.

Step 5: Round Two Questions

Based on the answers to the first questions, the next questions should delve deeper into the topic to clarify specific issues. These questions may also go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Again, collate and summarise the results, removing any irrelevant material and look for the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build consensus.

Step 6: Round Three Questions

The final questionnaire aims to focus on supporting decision making. Hone in on the areas of agreement. What is it the experts are all agreed upon?

You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus.

Step 7: Act on Your Findings

After this round of questions, your experts will have, we hope, reached a consensus and you will have a view of future events. Analyse the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities to your project.

Conclusion

Use the Delphi Technique for creating Work Breakdown Structures, identifying risks and opportunities, compiling lessons learned and anytime you would usually conduct a brainstorming session.

Predicting the future is not an exact science, but the Delphi Technique can help you understand the likelihood of future events and what impact they may have on your project.


References

¹ Cantrill JA, SibbaldB, Buetow S. The Delphi and Nominal Group Techniques in Health Services Research. International Journal of Pharmacy Practice 1996;4:67-74


Comments (2)

Topic: Delphi Technique a Step-by-Step Guide
4/5 (2)
Gravatar
Full StarFull StarFull StarFull StarEmpty Star
1st March 2018 8:58am
An Te (Birmingham UK) says...
Thank you for this succinct article. I would like to know if there is an optimal number of experts to choose? And if there is indeed an evidence-base for rationalising the number of experts to include in a Delphi study, if this option were made available to you?
Gravatar
Full StarFull StarFull StarEmpty StarEmpty Star
1st February 2018 2:02am
Delphi (Iceland) says...
I'm pretty sure it's Delphi haphazard not technique or method or study or forecast.

Add a comment



(never displayed)



 
2000
Enter the third letter of the word house.
Notify me of new comments via email.
Remember my form inputs on this computer.

The Risky Business of Project Management

Three red dice reading: Manage your risk

It is important at the beginning of any project to go through the risk identification process. Not all project risks are obvious, so here's how.

The Mythical 50% Resource

Red blocks with the percent sign on a white background

Most managers of software development projects have had an encounter with a resource who is committed to their project some percentage of the time.

How to Avoid Project Burnout

Exhausted businessman resting on a pile of paperwork with tongue hanging out from overwork

Resources on projects can be susceptible to burning out before the project finishes. Here are a few ideas to prevent burnout in project teams.

The Simplified Project Management Process

Flat design of project management with icons

A five-minute step by step explanation of what project management involves for people who are unfamiliar with the approach.

PROJECT SMART is the project management resource that helps managers at all levels improve their performance. We provide an important knowledge base for those involved in managing projects of all kinds. With weekly exclusive updates, we keep you in touch with the latest project management thinking.

WE ARE CONNECTED ~ Follow us on social media to get regular updates and opinion on what's happening in the world of project management.


Latest Comments

Cornelia commented on…
Nine Ways to Contribute to Project Team Success
- Thu 28 May 4:37am

Sajja Divya commented on…
Use Your Whole Brain: Leveraging Right-Brained Thinking in a Left-Brained World
- Mon 25 May 10:03am

Tyler Meinecke commented on…
Better Coaching Using the GROW Model
- Tue 19 May 10:55pm

Latest tweets

RT @pmbydesignca: @ProjectSmart Found in Dean M. Brenner’s book, “Sharing the Sandbox-Building and Leading World-Class Teams in the 21st Ce… about 9 hours ago

General Project Management • Re: What Are The Most Effective Team Management Tips For Managers? https://t.co/MAOBstMYFH about 18 hours ago

General Project Management • End User Survey on Construction Planning and Scheduling https://t.co/nTYWnHCBCo about 1 day ago